Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 19/2254Z from Region 3056 (S16W57). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (21 Jul, 22 Jul) and likely to be low on day three (23 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 19/2115Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/0614Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1915 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 133
Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 130/130/120
90 Day Mean 20 Jul 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 019/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 017/022-017/022-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/45/45
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 70/70/70