Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 19/1725Z from the vicinity of Region 3363 (S21W90). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 18/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/2206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 19/1423Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 79 pfu at 18/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1140 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (21 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jul). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (20 Jul), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (21 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (22 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 50/45/45
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 85/35/15
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 189
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 188/188/188
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 016/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 020/028-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 30/20/10
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/40/20
space weather
