Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 17/1227Z from Region 3058 (N13E26). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 687 km/s at 16/2115Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/1831Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (18 Jul, 19 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M 45/45/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 166
Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 160/160/150
90 Day Mean 17 Jul 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 008/008-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/35
Minor Storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 35/35/50
