Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 16/1746Z from Region 3363 (S24W59). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 16/1941Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/1947Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 16/2037Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17 pfu at 16/0735Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Jul). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Jul), have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (18 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (19 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M 60/60/50
Class X 25/25/15
Proton 25/20/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 184
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 184/182/178
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 013/018-018/026-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/30
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/50/25
Space weather
