Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 16/1539Z from Region 3055 (S16W52). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 605 km/s at 16/0654Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0552Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3341 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M 45/45/40
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 10/10/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 176
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 170/165/160
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/35
