Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 14/1844Z from Region 3370 (S15E08). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 14/1714Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 14/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 14/1742Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 293 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (16 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (17 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 181
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 182/180/180
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 018/022-010/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/15
Minor Storm 25/15/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 45/30/10

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