Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 11/1808Z from Region 3372 (N22E75). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 11/0119Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 845 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Jul, 13 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 20/15/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 214
Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 210/208/204
90 Day Mean 11 Jul 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 010/012-011/014-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/25
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 20/30/15

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