Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 09/0009Z from Region 3366 (S10W38). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 08/2111Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/1811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 860 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Jul, 11 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (12 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 179
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 175/175/170
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 008/008-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10

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