Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 19/1012Z from Region 3196 (N12E31). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (20 Jan, 21 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 19/0756Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 19/0922Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/1042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 176 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (20 Jan, 21 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (22 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M 60/60/50
Class X 15/15/10
Proton 10/10/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 219
Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 220/220/215
90 Day Mean 19 Jan 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 013/015-012/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/30/25
Space weather
