Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 07/0629Z from Region 3359 (S22W27). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 07/0326Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/0100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/0033Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 650 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (08 Jul) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 161
Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 160/160/155
90 Day Mean 07 Jul 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 014/018-013/015-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
space weather
