Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 06/1049Z from Region 3354. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 06/1638Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/1041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/0913Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1260 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Jul), unsettled to active levels on day two (08 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 158
Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 06 Jul 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 016/020-014/018-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/30
Minor Storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/20/20
space weather
