Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 04/1235Z from Region 3354 (N16W87). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (05 Jul) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 04/0337Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2200Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/2356Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3264 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 Jul, 06 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (07 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M 50/20/20
Class X 10/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 167
Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 165/160/160
90 Day Mean 04 Jul 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 006/005-006/005-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/35
Minor Storm 01/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/35
Space weather
