Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 02/0235Z from Region 3359 (S22E41). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 02/0402Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/0840Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2201 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 170
Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 170/170/165
90 Day Mean 02 Jul 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 006/005-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/20

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