Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 17/2329Z from Region 3190 (S14E20). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (19 Jan, 20 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (21 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 18/0405Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 17/2359Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 17/2302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 553 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M 60/60/50
Class X 15/15/10
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 220
Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 220/218/215
90 Day Mean 18 Jan 145

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 012/016-010/012-012/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 15/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/35/40

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