Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 25/1218Z from Region 3341 (S16W05). There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun, 28 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 25/0656Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 24/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 24/2326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 406 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 155
Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 150/145/145
90 Day Mean 25 Jun 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 007/008-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/35/30
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