Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 22/2344Z from Region 3340 (N22E07). There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast:

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 23/1805Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/1552Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1448 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (26 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 170
Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 170/165/165
90 Day Mean 23 Jun 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 008/010-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/15

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