Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 21/1244Z from Region 3341 (S15E48). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 21/2047Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/1229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/2021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1222 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Jun, 23 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 176
Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 175/180/180
90 Day Mean 21 Jun 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 013/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 010/012-010/014-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/20
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 35/50/30
Space weather
