Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 20/1709Z from Region 3341 (S15E58). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 19/2255Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/0914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/1151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Jun, 22 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (23 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 20/20/20
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 180
Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 180/185/190
90 Day Mean 20 Jun 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 011/012-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/25
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 35/35/25
space weather
