Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 19/0350Z from Region 3341 (S13E62). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 19/1616Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 19/1113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/0836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Jun, 21 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 169
Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 170/170/165
90 Day Mean 19 Jun 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 011/014-011/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/30
Minor Storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 35/35/35
space weather
