Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 16/0530Z from Region 3337 (N17E59). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun, 19 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 696 km/s at 15/2156Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 15/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 16/0231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 417 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 Jun, 19 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 157
Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 160/160/155
90 Day Mean 16 Jun 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 017/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 027/042
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 011/012-008/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/25
Minor Storm 10/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/35
Space Weather
