Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 15/1255Z from Region 3336 (S21E54). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 14/2214Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 15/2046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 15/1634Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 150 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 153
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 155/160/160
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 017/018-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/15
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/25/15

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