Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 14/1516Z from Region 3335 (S15E63). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 14/1103Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/0222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/2237Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 173 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (15 Jun, 17 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day two (16 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 144
Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 150/150/155
90 Day Mean 14 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 007/008-012/014-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/20
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20

Space Weather