Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 13/1738Z from Region 3334 (N17E68). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 12/2355Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0504Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1539Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 146 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (15 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 146
Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 146/144/140
90 Day Mean 13 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 005/005-007/005-012/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/20

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