Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 12/0658Z from Region 3330 (N18W59). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 12/1531Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/1559Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1503Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 146
Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 146/148/146
90 Day Mean 12 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 010/012-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/10

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