Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 10/2116Z from Region 3323 (S08W61). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 11/1950Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 11/0304Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 11/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Jun, 13 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (14 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 154
Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 155/157/153
90 Day Mean 11 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 012/012-010/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/25/10

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