Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 10/1851Z from Region 3327 (S15W13). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 10/2038Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/0927Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/0946Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 196 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 161
Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 157/160/157
90 Day Mean 10 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 008/012-012/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/25/25

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