Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 07/1146Z from Region 3327 (S16E28). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 06/2230Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/0741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 163 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (09 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 167
Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 170/165/165
90 Day Mean 07 Jun 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 009/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/05
space weather
