Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 06/1900Z from Region 3327 (S14E40). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 06/0953Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 05/2239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 06/0009Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 183 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (08 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 172
Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 170/160/160
90 Day Mean 06 Jun 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 006/005-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/20/10
space weather
