Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 05/0017Z from Region 3320 (N10W21). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (06 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 05/0820Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/1931Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/0825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 128 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Jun), quiet levels on day two (07 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (06 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M 30/25/25
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 10/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 169
Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 170/170/160
90 Day Mean 05 Jun 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 007/008-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/05/20
space weather
