Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 04/0345Z from Region 3323 (S07E20). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (05 Jun, 06 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (07 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 04/2016Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 04/1702Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 04/1714Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 328 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Jun, 06 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (07 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (05 Jun, 06 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M 35/35/25
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 10/10/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 168
Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 163/160/160
90 Day Mean 04 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 011/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05

Space Weather