Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/0241Z from Region 3324 (N15W12). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 01/2118Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/2351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/0029Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 226 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (03 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (04 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 162
Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 165/165/160
90 Day Mean 02 Jun 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 014/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 015/020-011/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/15
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10
space weather
