Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 15/0342Z from Region 3191 (N12E40). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 15/0137Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/2351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 15/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 317 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 Jan, 18 Jan) and quiet levels on day two (17 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 234
Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 235/230/225
90 Day Mean 15 Jan 141

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 022/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 008/008-005/005-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/30

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