Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 14/0917Z from Region 3296 (N15, L=141). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 14/2009Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/1514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/1515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 204 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 May), unsettled to active levels on day two (16 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 May).
III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 140
Predicted 15 May-17 May 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 14 May 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 005/005-011/014-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/20
Space weather
