Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 12/1336Z from Region 3296 (N15W76). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 12/0615Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 12/1645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/1232Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 592 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 May) and quiet levels on day three (15 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (13 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (14 May).

III. Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/10/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 149
Predicted 13 May-15 May 150/145/140
90 Day Mean 12 May 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 021/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 010/012-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/15

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