Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 11/0901Z from Region 3294 (S07W47). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 10/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/0547Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/0228Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 29 pfu at 10/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 564 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 May), quiet to active levels on day two (13 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 May). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (12 May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (13 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (14 May).
III. Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 70/50/20
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 163
Predicted 12 May-14 May 160/160/155
90 Day Mean 11 May 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 014/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 020/030-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor Storm 30/05/05
Major-severe storm 20/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/25/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 55/20/20
space weather
