Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 10/1421Z from Region 3296 (N15W49). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 680 km/s at 10/1139Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 10/0153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 09/2329Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 83 pfu at 10/1250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 367 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (11 May), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (12 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (11 May), are likely to cross threshold on day two (12 May) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (13 May).
III. Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M 60/60/55
Class X 20/20/15
Proton 99/70/50
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 170
Predicted 11 May-13 May 170/168/166
90 Day Mean 10 May 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 022/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 025/046-020/030-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 30/30/05
Major-severe storm 40/20/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 40/55/20
space weather
