Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 13/1015Z from Region 3181 (S21W87). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 13/1123Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 13/2014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 13/2017Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 13/0340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 326 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Jan, 15 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (16 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 209
Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 212/215/215
90 Day Mean 13 Jan 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 008/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 35/35/20
space weather
