Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 09/0354Z from Region 3296 (N15W37). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 08/2249Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/2315Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38 pfu at 09/0150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 435 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (10 May), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (11 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (10 May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (11 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (12 May).
III. Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M 65/60/60
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 50/25/20
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 180
Predicted 10 May-12 May 180/180/178
90 Day Mean 09 May 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 013/025-023/030-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 35/25/05
Major-severe storm 15/15/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/30/20
space weather
