Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 06/2157Z from Region 3299 (S06E42). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 06/2120Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 07/1453Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/1453Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (08 May), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (09 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 157
Predicted 08 May-10 May 160/160/160
90 Day Mean 07 May 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 021/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 036/055-019/024-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/25
Minor Storm 35/25/10
Major-severe storm 40/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 65/45/20
space weather
