Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 05/2227Z from Region 3288. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 06/1037Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 06/0452Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 06/0401Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (07 May), active to severe storm levels on day two (08 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (09 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
III. Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 152
Predicted 07 May-09 May 155/155/160
90 Day Mean 06 May 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 022/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 024/032-036/055-019/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/40
Minor Storm 40/35/25
Major-severe storm 15/40/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 30/65/45
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