Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 05/0801Z from Region 3296 (N16E20). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 05/1413Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/0229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 04/2312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5024 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 May), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (07 May) and active to major storm levels on day three (08 May).

III. Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 162
Predicted 06 May-08 May 165/165/165
90 Day Mean 05 May 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 013/015-018/026-030/046

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/30
Minor Storm 10/25/40
Major-severe storm 01/10/20
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/30/65

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