Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 04/0844Z from Region 3296 (N16E34). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (05 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (06 May, 07 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 03/2138Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 03/2154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6983 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (06 May, 07 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 May).
III. Event probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M 55/50/50
Class X 15/10/10
Proton 10/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 162
Predicted 05 May-07 May 162/162/164
90 Day Mean 04 May 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 006/005-011/014-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/25
Minor Storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/30/30
space weather
