Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 30/2028Z from Region 3293 (N13E82). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 671 km/s at 29/2153Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/1815Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/0458Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7832 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03 May).

III. Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 154
Predicted 01 May-03 May 155/150/145
90 Day Mean 30 Apr 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 018/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 012/012-012/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/20

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