Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 12/1128Z from Region 3181 (S19W74). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 464 km/s at 12/1349Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/0229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/1313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 202 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (13 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M 60/55/55
Class X 20/20/15
Proton 20/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 212
Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 210/210/208
90 Day Mean 12 Jan 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 006/005-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/25
Minor Storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/35/35
space weather
