Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 29/1017Z from Region 3288 (S23W31). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 720 km/s at 29/1552Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/1024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/1007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12967 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).

III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 156
Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 29 Apr 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 016/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 014/015-012/012-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/30
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/30/25

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