Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 10/2247Z from Region 3186 (N25E65). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 11/1935Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/1652Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 11/1649Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Jan, 13 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (12 Jan, 13 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (14 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M 65/65/60
Class X 30/30/25
Proton 20/20/15
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 195
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 196/196/198
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 005/005-006/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/35

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