Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/1618Z from Region 3282 (N11E52). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 13/2217Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/1238Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/1220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 171
Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 175/180/178
90 Day Mean 14 Apr 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 011/012-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/20
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/35/30
space weather
