Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 11/1016Z from Region 3272 (S21E10). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 10/2101Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/2339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 182 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 Apr, 13 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (14 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 143
Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 145/150/155
90 Day Mean 11 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 008/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/20
space weather
