Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 10/0016Z from Region 3186 (N25E65). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 10/1321Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/1426Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/1348Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 564 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 20/20/20
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 193
Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 192/190/188
90 Day Mean 10 Jan 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/20
Space weather
