Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 31/2148Z from Region 3180 (N19E56). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 01/0009Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/1918Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2887 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Jan), quiet levels on day two (03 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (04 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 153
Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 155/158/155
90 Day Mean 01 Jan 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 009/008-005/005-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/35
Minor Storm 05/01/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/60
space weather
